Best Super Bowl squares: Expert reveals numbers to target for 49ers vs. Chiefs

Best Super Bowl Squares

The best Super Bowl squares are exactly what you'd expect: Combinations of 0s, 3s and 7s — aka numbers common in football between field goals (3) and touchdowns (7) and the two combined (10).

Before going through all four quarters, here are the best numbers for the entire game:

First Quarter Squares

It's no surprise that in the first quarter, 0-0 is the square with the highest probability of winning, followed by combinations of 0s, 3s and 7s.

Variance increases as a game progresses, so the probabilities for the first quarter are more "straightforward" than for the final score.

Second Quarter Squares

The best numbers for the second quarter are combinations of 0s and 7s, but their probabilities decrease relative to the first quarter.

Third Quarter Squares

The third quarter isn't all that different from the second, though 3s continue to decline since those are less likely after teams cross 13 points.

Final Score Squares

With a four-point spread, the value of 49ers 7 and Chiefs 3 sees the highest probability for the final score numbers.

How to Run a Super Bowl Squares Pool

Action Network's James Lumalu offers this additional primer on how these pools work.

If your square intersects at Chiefs 7 and 49ers 0, then you win the first quarter if the Chiefs are leading the game 7-0. If Kansas City wins 27-20, then hey, you win the full game, too, since the last digit of each score is a match with your numbers.

There are five basic steps to setting up a squares pool.

1. Print your sheet.
2. Pick a price to buy in for each square. That price will determine the pool’s pot. So, with 100 squares available, a price of $2 per square would lead to a $200 pot.

3. “Sell” all 100 squares to your friends, family, coworkers, whoever. Put their names in random squares until every single one is full.

4. Don't fill numbers in until every square has a name in it. That way, the first participants can't take the best numbers. You'll be hoping to get numbers like 0, 3 and 7 since football games often end with scores that feature these numbers.

5. The teams are on each axis of our sheet, but you'll want to write Chiefs on the top and 49ers on the left (or vice versa).

6. Randomize the numbers 0-9 by picking them out of a hat (or using this site) and assign them to a spot along the “X” axis (49ers), then repeat the same process for the “Y” axis (Chiefs).

Here’s an example with the numbers filled in:

Payout Structure

Most pools pay out each quarter. Then, a bigger percentage will go toward the final score.

Let’s continue with the example of the $200 pot.

• First quarter: $30 (15%)
• Halftime: $60 (30%)
• Third quarter: $30 (15%)
• Final: $80 (40%)

There are plenty of ways to structure payouts, including awarding the entire pot to the final score winner or paying out with every score change.